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The Fasting Life

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Mahmood Gusev
Mahmood Gusev

Research And Development Management: Technology Journey Through Analysis, Forecasting And Decision 1

Our team provides regulatory and financial decision support, evaluation and impact assessment, and travel behavior modeling and forecasting through benefit-cost analysis, econometric modeling, survey research, and interviews and focus groups.

Research and Development Management: Technology Journey through Analysis, Forecasting and Decision 1


Jonathan Badgley is an economist focusing on equity and resilience analysis, regulatory and program evaluation, benefit-cost analysis, and decision support tool development. Since joining the U.S. DOT Volpe Center in 2015, he has worked with the full range of modal agencies within U.S. DOT as well as several non-DOT federal agencies. Badgley is the co-lead of the Equity Community of Practice at the U.S. DOT Volpe Center, which holds regular meetings on equity-related topics and provides equity-related training and resources for the Center. His recent work includes program evaluation of the FHWA R&T Innovative Intersection Design program; regulatory evaluations of the manual of uniform traffic devices, the National Bridge Inspection Standards, the Emergency Relief program, and aviation accessibility standards for single-aisle aircraft; decision support tool development of the Resiliency and Disaster Recovery tool and the V2I Benefits Estimation tool; estimation of national and state vehicle hours traveled; and literature review and analysis of the distributional impacts of highway funding mechanisms. Badgley has BAs in economics and philosophy and an MS in agricultural, environmental, and development economics from The Ohio State University (Columbus, OH).

Greg Bucci is an economist with a focus on benefit-cost analysis, evaluation, and financial analysis and reporting. He works across a range of transportation modes, including FRA, FHWA, FTA, and PHMSA. Since joining the U.S. DOT Volpe Center in 2013, Bucci has conducted a range of regulatory impact evaluations, grant program assessments, and research program evaluations. He has assessed passenger railroad on-time performance and railroad cost tracking systems. Bucci has led efforts to evaluate highway research and technology investments and has also assessed the benefits of FAA acquisitions. He joined the U.S. DOT Volpe Center after completing his Master of Arts in economics from Boston University (Boston, MA) and has public, nonprofit, and private consulting experience. Bucci has a Bachelor of Science in economics and environmental studies from Bentley University (Waltham, MA).

Within these understood limits, let us assess some of the more useful and widespread technological forecasting techniques and see how the information they produce can influence management decisions. The classification system I will use is admittedly somewhat arbitrary, since the differences among techniques are not always clear-cut. In any event, the various methods should generally be used in combinations in order to stimulate imaginative analysis, introduce added objectivity, and make sure that all relevant technological flows are considered.

Technological forecasts can improve decisions through clearer delineation of future technological opportunities and threats. To improve decisions, the forecasts need not provide perfect information about the future. Complete precision is not a realistic demand; nor is it necessary in order to justify forecasting costs. To be worthwhile, forecasts must simply allow a better operation than could be achieved without them. And their margin of contribution to decisions need only exceed the cost of their preparation.

Automated driving technologies can improve safety and driving convenience through advanced sensing and automated decision-making capabilities that can assist or replace human control. The consequences of ACES mobility for energy and emissions are highly uncertain. They will depend on the combined effect of changes in consumer behaviour, policy intervention, technological progress and vehicle technology. Recent studies estimate a wide range of possible outcomes. For instance, over the long term, under a best-case scenario of improved efficiency through automation and ride-sharing, energy use could halve compared with current levels. Conversely, if efficiency improvements do not materialise and rebound effects from automation result in substantially more travel, energy use could more than double.

Full prevention of cyber-attacks is impossible, but their impact can be limited if countries and companies are well-prepared. Building system-wide resilience depends on all actors and stakeholders first being aware of the risks. Digital resilience also needs to be included in technology research and development efforts as well as built into policy and market frameworks.

Digitalisation could also benefit specific clean energy technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS). Digital technology applications for CO2 capture are similar in nature and benefit to digitalisation in industry and power generation. Specifically, optimisation of control processes through automation and enhanced data collection and analytics are likely to reduce overall costs. Much of the digital transformation and innovation from the oil and gas industry appears to be transferable to CO2 storage assessment and development as well.

As an efficient way to reduce overall digital security risks, policy makers should include security considerations in all publicly supported technology research and design programmes, and in product manufacturing through standard-setting.

Reimagine clinical development by intelligently connecting data, technology, and analytics to optimize your trials. The result? Faster decision making and reduced risk so you can deliver life-changing therapies faster.

Hurricanes have been the cause of many maritime disasters and unfortunately, there is no single rule of thumb that can be used by mariners to ensure safe separation from a hurricane at sea. Instead, constant monitoring of hurricane potential & continual risk analysis when used with some fundamental guidelines become the basic tools to minimize a hurricane's impact to vessels at sea or in port. Today, even as our understanding of hurricanes increases, there is still much error inherent in forecasting the movement & intensity of these systems. Through the use of a recurring risk analysis, mariners can minimize potential impacts of a hurricane encounter. Coincidental with the fact that NHC issues 4 Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory Messages (TCM) per day when a system is active, the risk analysis needs to be done in conjunction with each new TCM to ensure that the sailor is evaluating the latest information to make navigation decisions. This risk analysis includes a number of extremely important factors needed to make sound decisions & ultimately remain clear of hurricanes either at sea or in-port.


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